The Global Trend of Wars
First of all it was evident that we had to think 'out of the military box' and start from a National US policies perspectitive, and work down from that to what part us Military could most effectively play. First of all, we had to start with the trend in conflicts that were INTERNATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT - that is those armed conflicts which the United States, as a World Power, had to take into account because they either affected our strategic interests, threatend us or those countries with with we had treaty obligations, or where countries asked for our assistance.
We first measured conflict trends just over the 8 years from 1958 when such 'irregular' or 'lower spectrum of war' conflicts started rising to 1966 when our study was due.
The charts below were the Unclassified results of our study. They were deliberately made that way so that they could be studied by other - than Pentagon - agencies of the US government, and could be read by the Press.
The total trend was up, and especially irregular forms of conflict when compared with conventional war conflicts.
Then came the question WHERE were those conflicts.
It was clear most of the prolonged insurgencies were in the 3d World regions - not in the advanced European or North American regions.
Now these results of a picture of world Trends of the numbers of lower spectrum of war conflicts came as a surprise to senior military planners in the Pentagon.
But the bigger surprises - on what other trends correlated mostly with the number and locus for 'lower spectrum of war' - were yet to come.